COVID risk factors and implications

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Dr. John Campbell
Published at : 14 Feb 2021
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COVID-19 risk assessment tool

https://www.bma.org.uk/media/2768/bma-covid-19-risk-assessment-tool-july2020.pdf

Work-based risk assessment

Model does not incorporate other external factors

High-risk household members

Those at higher risk of mental health issues

Pregnancy

There is currently insufficient data to make any meaningful assessment about the risk of COVID-19 to either the mother or the unborn child

Indeed the pandemic is not yet 9 months old

Until more information is available, we would recommend all people who are pregnant be regarded as high risk and offered the option to shield

Low Risk less than 3

Medium Risk 3-5

High Risk equal to or more than 6

Age

less than 50 1

more than 60 2

more than 70 4

more than 80 6

Sex at Birth

Female 0

Male 1

Ethnicity

Caucasian 0

Black African descent 2

Indian Asian descent 1

Filipino descent 1

Other (including Mixed race) 1

Diabetes

(Type 1 or Type 2) 1

(Type 1 or Type 2) 2
(Complicated diabetes = presence of microvascular complications or HbA1c≥64mmol/mol)
Obesity

BMI≥35kg/m2 1

Cardiovascular disease

Angina, previous MI, stroke
or cardiac intervention 1

Heart failure 2

Pulmonary disease

Asthma 1

Non-Asthma chronic pulmonary 2

Either above requiring oral corticosteroids in previous year 1

Malignant neoplasm

Active malignancy 3

Malignancy in remission 1

Rheumatological conditions

Active treated conditions 2

Immunosuppressant therapy

Any indication 2

More on comorbidities

https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/need-extra-precautions/people-with-medical-conditions.html#asthma


European CDC (weeks 42, ending 18th October)

https://www.ecdc.europa.eu/en/covid-19/surveillance/weekly-surveillance-report

Sustained increase in cases over 2 weeks in 28 countries

At least 60 per 100 000

Austria, Belgium, Bulgaria, Croatia, Cyprus, Czechia, Denmark, Finland, France, Germany, Hungary, Iceland, Ireland, Italy, Latvia, Liechtenstein, Lithuania, Luxembourg, Malta, the Netherlands, Poland, Portugal, Romania, Slovakia, Slovenia, Spain, Sweden and the UK

Sustained increase over 2 weeks in 16 countries in over 65s

At least 60 per 100 000

Austria, Czechia, Denmark, Hungary, Iceland, Ireland, Latvia, Lithuania, Luxembourg, Malta, the Netherlands, Portugal, Romania, Slovenia, Spain and Sweden

Weekly test positivity, at least 3% or had increased against the previous week, 19 countries

Austria, Bulgaria, Croatia, Czechia, France, Germany, Hungary, Iceland, Ireland, Italy, Malta, the Netherlands, Poland, Portugal, Romania, Slovakia, Slovenia, Spain and Sweden

Vaccine, early months of next year, Matt Hancock

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/global-health/science-and-disease/coronavirus-news-uk-latest-cases-deaths-airport-tests-schools/

Oxford, AstraZeneca, AZD1222

30 million doses under UK manufacture

Roll-out first half of 2021

Some people vaccinated 2020

Immune response similar across all age groups

Strong immune response in elderly

Encouraging to see immunogenicity responses were similar between older and younger adults (AZ)

Lower levels of side-effects in older adults

Elderly usually have a reduced immune response (e.g. influenza vaccine)

Antibodies and T-cells

Brazil, India, South Africa, UK, US

Medicines and Healthcare products Regulatory Agency

Food and Drug Administration

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